James Copley: Why Sunderland are spending £11.5m on Robin Roefs – and what it means for Anthony Patterson….
Data shows why Sunderland moved for Robin Roefs – and what it could mean for Anthony Patterson this season
Sunderland’s decision to spend £11.5million on Robin Roefs may prove one of the most intriguing moves of their summer window – and it’s not hard to understand why.
At just 22, the Dutch goalkeeper has emerged as one of Europe’s most promising young talents. His performances for NEC Nijmegen last season caught the eye of clubs across the continent, and the data strongly suggests he’s ready for the step up to the Premier League.
Here, we examine what Roefs brings – and what it could mean for Anthony Patterson as Sunderland prepare for life in the top flight:
Eredivisie’s standout keeper – and elite in the air
Roefs saved 10.1 goals above expected in the 2024-25 campaign, a figure bettered by just four goalkeepers in Europe’s top six leagues. His 9.7 post-shot expected goals prevented led the Eredivisie and would have ranked sixth out of 212 keepers across the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1. A save percentage of 72.9% and 10 clean sheets in 32 league games underline his importance to an NEC side that finished eighth with one of the best defensive records in the division.
But it’s not just his shot-stopping that stands out. Roefs claimed 52 high balls – a total topped by only four goalkeepers across Europe’s top five leagues, including Emi Martinez and David Raya – and dealt with 11.2% of crosses into his box, placing him in the 99th percentile globally. He also ranks in the 81st percentile for defensive actions outside the penalty area, highlighting his comfort in sweeping situations and command of the backline. It’s a profile that suggests Régis Le Bris may opt for a high defensive line and a proactive goalkeeper this season.
How Roefs compares to Patterson
While Patterson has earned enormous trust at Sunderland, the numbers illustrate why the club felt compelled to strengthen. Roefs’ 72.9% save rate outstripped Patterson’s 68.7%, while his +5.20 goals prevented marks a stark contrast to Patterson’s -1.75, which indicates he conceded more than the average goalkeeper would have given the quality of shots faced.
Roefs also brings more aerial dominance. His 52 high claims nearly double Patterson’s 23, and he made 20 sweeper-keeper actions compared to Patterson’s 10. These metrics reflect Roefs’ ability to control his box and his suitability to Premier League demands. Patterson has also long been criticised by Black Cats supporters for not claiming enough high balls and not looking as convincing as he perhaps should.
In terms of distribution, there’s little to separate the two. Both recorded long ball accuracy around 33.6%, though Patterson had the edge in overall pass completion (68.6% to Roefs’ 62.7%). However, Roefs attempted and completed more accurate long balls (216 to Patterson’s 203), suggesting a slightly wider range in kick-starting transitions. Perhaps this suggests that Le Bris’ plan in the Premier League does not involve using his goalkeeper as a distributor or creator.
What it means for Anthony Patterson
The arrival of Roefs naturally raises questions about Patterson’s future, but the situation is far from confrontational. Patterson, now 25, was crucial in Sunderland’s promotion push – not least through two superb saves in the play-off final against Sheffield United. His long-term contract runs until 2028, and the club’s return to the Premier League triggered a performance-based pay increase that reflects his status.
Despite the new signing, The Echo understands that Patterson remains happy with how the situation has been managed. There is no indication that he will be pushed out of the club this summer. In fact, he is understood to be relishing the increased competition and the opportunity to learn from – and compete with – a top-level peer.
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Fitness permitting, Patterson is still expected to challenge for the first-choice goalkeeper spot, with Sunderland set to kick off their campaign against West Ham on August 16. He is currently recovering from a minor knock but is aiming to return to full training next week.
Strength in depth – not a changing of the guard
This isn’t about replacing Patterson, but raising the bar. Sunderland now have two goalkeepers capable of starting in the Premier League – a situation few newly promoted clubs can boast. Should form dip or injury strike, Le Bris has a ready-made alternative with strong top-flight potential.
For Patterson, this represents the next step in his development. And for Sunderland, it’s a statement of Premier League intent: competition, not complacency, will define their approach to staying up. Make no mistake, though, Roefs is an ambitious young goalkeeper who is coming to Sunderland to play games. Who manages to keep the shirt long-term remains to be seen, but it provides a fascinating sub-plot to Sunderland’s season.
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